Wolfgang Münchau se v Financial Timesu sprašuje, zakaj je nemška centralna banka, najostrejša zaščitnica svetinje nizke inflacije, zapadla v obup. Bundesbanka je namreč predlagala, da naj bi se plače letos povečale za 3%. Običajno se nemške plače v socialnih pogajanjih povečajo za raven inflacije in za delček rasti produktivnosti. Glede na rekordno nizko inflacijo 0.4%, ki bo očitno na tej ravni vztrajala vsaj še leto ali dve, bi torej večino rasti plač morali pokriti z rastjo produktivnosti, ki pa je nižja od te razlike in s tem je predlog nesprejemljiv za delodajalce.

Zakaj torej Bundesbanka predlaga inflacijo plač? Razlog je, če opustimo teorije zarote, v depresiji zasebne porabe, ki se lahko poveča le ob občutni rasti realnih plač. Vendar pa samo višje plače v Nemčiji ne bodo dovolj, potrebne bodo spodbude za celotno evro območje. To pa pomeni občutno monetarno ekspanzijo prek odkupovanja državnih obveznic s strani ECB ter zavestno kršenje fiskalnih ciljev glede zmanjševanja proračunskih deficitov.

Šesto leto po izbruhu krize evro območje šele zares prihaja v deflacijsko depresijo japonskega tipa. To pa je v prvi vrsti posledica napak ekonomske politike. Začelo se je z Veliko nemško manipulacijo.

What went wrong is that almost everyone in Frankfurt – home to the Bundesbank as well as the European Central Bank – underestimated how persistent low inflation would turn out to be.

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For the conservative economists of the German mainstream, slippage in the inflation target is no big deal. They could happily live with zero inflation. So why does the Bundesbank feel compelled to call for more? Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, has said that the Bundesbank wants to pre-empt quantitative easing by the ECB.

It is a possible, if somewhat conspiratorial, interpretation.

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The Bundesbank’s call for higher wages is a sign of desperation and a signal the German central bank is not willing to address the underlying problem: a fall in aggregate demand, brought on by a financial crisis, excessive austerity and repeated monetary policy mistakes.

The eurozone does not need wage or price fixing. It needs further monetary expansion. The ECB should have started large-scale asset purchases a year ago. It certainly should do so now. The EU should allow governments to overshoot their fiscal targets this year, and suspend the fiscal compact, which would result in further fiscal pain from 2016.

Vir: Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times