V ZDA se še krepijo špekulacije o tem kdo bo novi šef zveznih rezerv (Fed) oziroma kako bo vplival na finančne trge in realno gospodarstvo. Zdi se, da vsi razen Bele hiše favorizirajo Janet Yellen, sedanjo vice-guvernerko, medte ko se predsednik Obama nagiba k imenovanju svojega glavnega ekonomskega svetovalca Lawrenca Summersa. Zadnje špekulacije v New York Timesu govorijo celo o tem, da bi Summers na čelu Fed zaradi povečane negotovosti utegnil ogroziti gospodarsko okrevanje. Nekatere ocene govorijo celo o tem, da bi Summers na čelu Fed lahko stal 0.5% do 0.75% rasti BDP v naslednjih dveh letih oziroma 350 do 500 tisoč delovnih mest.

Ne glede na moje osebne preference se mi zdijo te špekulacije nekako preveč orkestrirane, da bi jim povsem verjel. Ne bi me presenetilo, če bi bil v ozadju zelo jasen finančni interes finančnih trgov.

Many investors expected that Ms. Yellen would be nominated to replace Ben S. Bernanke as head of the central bank, a choice that would have sent a clear message of continuity. Instead, investors are now trying to anticipate how Mr. Summers might change the Fed.

The unease is the product of a little information and a lot of speculation. Mr. Summers, a Harvard University economist who served for two years as Mr. Obama’s primary economic adviser, has said little about monetary policy in recent years. Investors are left parsing a handful of comments in which he has expressed some doubts on the benefits and concern about the consequences of the Fed’s policies.

…

But Mr. Summers has criticized the Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, warning that bond-buying on such a scale could distort financial markets. He said it was “less efficacious for the real economy than most people suppose.” As a result, many investors suspect he would seek to end those purchases more quickly than Ms. Yellen.

Julia Coronado, chief North America economist at BNP Paribas, said last week that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note already had started to rise as investors price in a Summers nomination. She added that the yield could eventually rise half a percentage point more than if the president nominated Ms. Yellen instead. Ms. Coronado estimated that this Summers effect would reduce domestic economic growth by 0.5 to 0.75 percentage point over the next two years, which could reduce job creation by 350,000 to 500,000 jobs.

Vir: New York Times