Sodba ameriškega sodišča, da Argentina ne sme plačevati obveznosti do 93% posojilodajalcev, ki so pristali na znižanje obveznosti, dokler ne poplača ostalih 7% posojilodajalcev, ki na znižanje niso pristali, je ena najbolj nepotrebnih in škodljivih odločitev. Po eni strani je Argentino po nepotrebnem poslala v delni bankrot, po drugi strani pa razsodba precej zapleta prestrukturiranje dolgov insolventnih držav. Odpira vprašanje moralnega hazarda posojilodajalcev, ki opogumljeni s to razsodbo ne bodo hoteli pristati na haircut, čeprav so prej zavestno hazardirali z naložbami v zelo rizične državne obveznice. Problem je v ameriški zakonodaji, ki takšen moralni hazard dopušča in ki ga ta razsodba zdaj še podpihuje. To ima lahko močne negativne posledice na stabilnost mednarodnih finančnih trgov. V tem oziru je sto ameriških ekonomistov poslalo javno pismo na Kongres naj prepreči uveljavitev te razsodbe.

O tej sodbi sicer pišem več v avgustovski številki revije Delo +50.

Over 100 economists, including Nobel laureate Robert Solow, Branko Milanovic and Dani Rodrik called on Congress today to take action to mitigate the harmful fallout from the recent ruling by Judge Griesa of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that requires Argentina to pay holdout creditors at the same time as the majority of creditors. The letter warns that “The District Court’s decision – and especially its injunction that is currently blocking Argentina from making payments to 93 percent of its foreign bondholders — could cause unnecessary economic damage to the international financial system, as well as to U.S. economic interests, Argentina, and fifteen years of U.S. bi-partisan debt relief policy.”

“It’s a widely shared opinion among economists that the court’s attempt to force Argentina into a default that nobody – not the debtor nor more than 90 percent of creditors – wants, is wrong and damaging,” said Mark Weisbrot, economist and Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, who helped circulate the letter.

The letter warns that Griesa’s decision could “torpedo an existing agreement with those bondholders who chose to negotiate.” It also cautions that, since sovereign governments do not have the option of declaring bankruptcy, “the court’s ruling would severely hamper the ability of creditors and debtors to conclude an orderly restructuring should a sovereign debt crisis occur. This could have a significant negative impact on the functioning of international financial markets, as the International Monetary Fund has repeatedly warned.“

The court’s decision “creates a moral hazard,” the economists write, since investors will be allowed “to obtain full repayment, no matter how risky the initial investment.”

Celotno pismo je dostopno tukaj.

Dobra komentarja na to temo pa sta tudi:

Kenneth Rogoff, A Tear for Argentina, Project Syndicate

Anne Krueger, Argentina’s Sovereign Bondage, Project Syndicate