Japonska obsojena na dolgotrajne primarne deficite, kar pa sploh ni slaba stvar

Blanchard in Tashiro japonski vladi po skoraj 30 letih krize ne svetujeta, da naj začne s fiskalno konsolidacijo, torej z doseganjem primarnega presežka v proračunu, pač pa nasprotno – da s primarnimi deficiti vzdržuje raven agregatnega povpraševanja. In da s primernim mixom javnih izdatkov cilja na ključna deficitna področja, predvsem povezana z demografijo. Ta “nova filozofija” temelji na novem spoznanju Olivierja Blancharda, da se v času r<g in ničelnih obrestnih mer povsem spremenijo opcije ekonomske politike.  Fiskalna politika postane bistveno pomembnejša od monetarne, njen strošek pa postane ne samo znosen, pač pa celo neznaten.

For many years, the Japanese government has promised an eventual return to primary budget surpluses, but it has not delivered on these promises. Its latest goal is to return to primary balance by 2025. Blanchard and Tashiro, however, argue that, in the current economic environment in Japan, primary deficits may be needed for a long time, because they may be the best tool to sustain demand and output, alleviate the burden on monetary policy, and increase future output. What primary deficits are used for, however, is equally important, and the Japanese government should put them to better use. The authors recommend that, given Japan’s aging population, the government should spend on measures aimed at increasing fertility—and by implication population and output growth—which are likely to more than pay for themselves.

Vir: Blanchard in Tashiro,

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