Strukturne reforme in evro: igra z ničelno vsoto

Mark Carney, guverner Bank of England, je dal zelo lepo in šolsko razlago, zakaj strukturne reforme v monetarni uniji ne morejo biti rešitev za izhod iz krize. Strukturne reforme v smislu zniževanja stroškov dela v eni državici unije sicer dvignejo njeno konkurenčnost, vednar pa zgolj realocirajo obstoječe povpraševanje, medtem ko agregatno povpraševanje še vedno ostane enako. Celotnega gospodarstva unije to ne potegne iz krize, ker gre za igro z ničelno vsoto. Interna devalvacija je rešitev za enega, ne pa tudi za vse.

Zato so potrebni ukrepi za dvig agregatnega povpraševanja na ravni celotne unije, in to v likvidnostni pasti (ničelne obrestne mere) lahko naredi samo fiskalna politika. Šele ko povpraševanje raste, je smiselno delati strukturne reforme v posamezni članici in dvigovati njeno relativno konkurenčnost glede na ostale članice.

Zanimivo je, da te preproste aritmetike monetarne unije mnogo ekonomistov in večina politikov ne zmore dojeti.

The governor expressed scepticism about whether improving competitiveness through driving down costs – a process known as internal devaluation – would work. “Internal devaluations simply reallocate demand within the currency union. They do not boost aggregate demand in the euro area as a whole. Put another way, since competitiveness is relative, a solution for some cannot be a solution for all.”

Carney said the eurozone’s unemployment rate of 11.5% was more than double that of the UK, but its fiscal deficit – the gap between tax revenues and spending – was only half the size of the UK’s. The eurozone, he said, should be using a “constructive” fiscal policy to support demand and mitigate the “tail risks of stagnation”.

He added: “Europe needs a comprehensive, coherent plan to anchor expectations, build confidence and escape its debt trap.”

Vir: Mark Carney, The Guardian

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