Svensson vs. sadomonetaristi – 1 : 0

Tako kot povsod, je tudi v ekonomiji ideologija zelo zakoreninjena in ima zelo drage makroekonomske posledice. Zaradi ene ideološke dogme (obsedenost z dolgom oziroma nujnost varčevanja v času krize) zadnja leta zelo trpi celotno evro območje. Druga takšna ideološka dogma je obsedenost z inflacijo. Zaradi nje je denimo ECB leta 2010 začela hitro dvigovati obrestne mere. Podobno je naredila tudi švedska centralna banka. Zaradi nestrinjanja s tem je leta 2012 viceguverner Riksbank Lars Svensson, sicer eden izmed vodilnih ekonomskih strokovnjakov za ciljanje inflacije, odstopil. Pokazalo se je, seveda, da je imel prav. Švedska je zaradi napačne monetarne politike zapadla v deflacijo in je morala spustiti obrestno mero na ničlo. To je lahko zadoščenje za Svenssona, toda problem je škoda, ki jo je švedska centralna banka z ideološko obsedenostjo povzročila gospodarstvu.

Lars Svensson quit Sweden’s Riksbank in a huff last year, frustrated by the central bank’s insistence on raising rates despite the deflationary dangers. His former employer has just tacitly admitted that the economist was right.

The Riksbank earlier this morning cut its benchmark interest rate to an unprecedented zero per cent, and markedly moved out its forecast for when it will lift rates again until mid-2016, in an attempt to ease the deflationary forces gripping the Swedish economy.

The Riksbank should arguably have listened more closely to its former deputy governor sooner. Professor Svensson is famous for his research on inflation and inflation-targeting central banks in particular, and it was considered a coup when he left academia to join the Riksbank in 2007.

Professor Svensson became a vocal advocate for the Riksbank’s pioneering experimentation with negative deposit rates in the wake of the financial crisis, a policy that has now been adopted by the European Central Bank.

But the economist fell out with his colleagues when the Swedish central bank’s other policymakers started voting for rate hikes in 2010 to temper credit growth and deflate what they considered a housing bubble […].

By 2011 the base rate was 2 per cent, and despite starting to pare the increases in 2012 professor Svensson left in disgust last year, arguing that his colleagues were “obsessed with debt” in the face of deflationary dangers and high unemployment. His friend, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, went further and called the Riksbank’s a “sadomonetarist“.

Vir: Financial Times

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