Follow up na včerajšnji post o tem, kako prepoznati “konektorja” tipa Paul Revere. Leta 2010 je akademska revija Real World Economics Review podelila t.i. Reverejevo nagrado za ekonomijo trem ekonomistom: Stevu Keenu, Nourielu Roubiniju in Deanu Bakerju. Nagrada se imenuje po Paulu Revereju zaradi njegove legendarne nočne ježe in zgodovinske vloge pri alarmiranju ameriških priseljencev pred ofenzivo britanskih trup. Trije ekonomisti so nagrado dobili (na podlagi neposrednega glasovanja naročnikov revije) iz podobnega razloga: ker so zelo zgodaj, ko je bilo to nepopularno in so bili deležni posmeha, opozorili na nepremičninske balone in na prihajajočo krizo. Podrobna obrazložitev je spodaj.
Steve Keen (1,152 votes)
Keen’s 1995 paper “Finance and economic breakdown” concluded as follows:
The chaotic dynamics explored in this paper should warn us against accepting a period of relative tranquillity in a capitalist economy as anything other than a lull before the storm.
In December 2005, drawing heavily on his 1995 theoretical paper and convinced that a financial crisis was fast approaching, Keen went high-profile public with his analysis and predictions. He registered the webpage http://www.debtdeflation.com dedicated to analyzing the “global debt bubble”, which soon attracted a large international audience. At the same time he began appearing on Australian radio and television with his message of approaching financial collapse and how to avoid it. In November 2006 he began publishing his monthly DebtWatch Reports (33 in total). These were substantial papers (upwards of 20 pages on average) that applied his previously developed analytical framework to large amounts of empirical data. Initially these papers analyzed the Global Financial Collapse that he was predicting and then its realization.
Nouriel Roubini (566 votes)
In summer 2005 Roubini predicted that real home prices in the United States were likely to fall at least 30% over the next 3 years. In 2006 he wrote on August 23:
By itself this [house price] slump is enough to trigger a US recession.
And on August 30 he wrote:
The recent increased financial problems of … sub-prime lending institutions may thus be the proverbial canary in the mine – or tip of the iceberg – and signal the more severe financial distress that many housing lenders will face when the current housing slump turns into a broader and uglier housing bust that will be associated with a broader economic recession. You can then have millions of households with falling wealth, reduced real incomes and lost jobs…”
In November 2006 on his blog he wrote:
The housing recession is now becoming a construction recession; and the construction recession is now turning into a clear auto and manufacturing recession; and the manufacturing recession will soon turn into a retail recession as squeezed households – facing falling home prices and rising mortgage servicing costs – sharply contract their rate of consumption.
Dean Baker (495 votes)
In August 2002 Baker published “The Run-Up in Home Prices: Is It Real or Is It Another Bubble?” in which he concluded that it was the latter. In December 2003 he published in the Los Angles Times “Who to Blame When the Next Bubble Bursts”. This was the first of dozens of columns appearing in US newspapers that Baker wrote on the bubble. In one from May 2004, “Building on the Bubble”, he wrote:
The fact that people are borrowing against their homes at a rapid rate (more than $750 billion in 2003) is more evidence of an unsustainable bubble. The ratio of mortgage debt to home equity is at record highs.
In 2006 he put out repeated warnings of the systemic implications of the housing bubble, and in November published the paper “Recession Looms for the U.S. Economy in 2007” in which he wrote:
The wealth effect created by the housing bubble fuelled an extraordinary surge in consumption over the last five years, as savings actually turned negative. …This home equity fuelled consumption will be sharply curtailed in the near future…. The result will be a downturn in consumption spending, which together with plunging housing investment, will likely push the economy into recession.