V intervjuju za Spiegel kontroverzni George Soros, nekoč borzni vigilant, danes pa filantrop, pojasnjuje, zakaj Nemčija z nereševanjem evrske krize dela tragično zgodovinsko napako. In zakaj je reševanje evra za Nemčijo ceneje kot razpad evrskega območja in EU.O stroških razpada evro območja:
SPIEGEL ONLINE: In Germany, once the motor of European integration, people are openly discussing the possibility of leaving the euro zone. Many Germans believe that a return to the deutschmark would be cheaper than to remain stuck in a flawed currency union. Are they right?
Soros: There is no question that a breakup of the euro would be very damaging, very costly, both financially and politically. And the biggest loss would be incurred by Germany. Germans have to bear in mind that, effectively, they have suffered practically no losses so far. Transfers have all been in the form of loans, and it is only when the loans are not repaid that real losses will be incurred.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: In surveys, though, most Germans no longer believe that loans granted to Greece or other nations will ever be repaid. They worry that Germany is simply on the hook for the rest of Europe.
Soros: But that would be the case only if the euro broke up. We have witnessed a tremendous capital flight, not only from Greece but also from Italy and Spain. All those transfers would result in claims by the banks of the creditor countries against the central banks of the debtor countries in the Euroclear System, the TARGET 2. I believe that claims by the Bundesbank will exceed a trillion euros by the end of this year.
Zakaj bi nemčija morala nositi stroške reševanja evra?
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why should Germany carry all the blame? After all, other EU nations shied away from necessary structural reforms and lived beyond their means.
Soros: There is no doubt that the countries that now have a very large debt have not introduced the kind of structural reforms that Germany did and are therefore at a disadvantage. But the problem is that this disadvantage is becoming even more pronounced through the punitive policies in place now. Italy currently has to spend 6 percent of its GDP every year just to stay even with Germany because it has to pay so much more to refinance its debt. There is no way, with that handicap, that Italy can close the competitiveness gap with Germany.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Once again: How is that Germany’s fault?
Soros: This is the joint responsibility of everyone who was involved in the introduction of the euro without understanding the consequences. When the euro was introduced, the regulators allowed banks to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds without setting aside any equity capital. And the European Central Bank discounted all government bonds on equal terms. So commercial banks found it advantageous to accumulate the bonds of the weaker countries to earn a few extra basis points.
O tem, da je reševanje evra za Nemčijo lahko cenejše kot je bil Marshallov plan za ZDA:
SPIEGEL ONLINE: The Marshall Plan, though significant, amounted to just a small share of the US gross domestic product. The potential payouts related to a euro rescue program, on the other hand, might be more than Germany can handle.
Soros: Nonsense. The more comprehensive and convincing a debt reduction program is, the less likely it is to fail. And remember, just as Germany is grateful to America for the Marshall Plan, Italy would be grateful to Germany for helping it lower its refinancing costs. If it did that, Germany could set the conditions. And Italy would be happy to meet those conditions, because it would benefit from it. Not to recognize this opportunity is a tragic, historical mistake by the Germans.
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